Where the rubber meets the road: Conference, consultations and planning statistics.
Last week was certainly a busy one.
We had the Labour Party Conference, the launch of a working paper on ‘Brownfield Passports’, the close of the NPPF consultation, and the release of two major sets of planning related statistics.
It was also a week that lent itself to comparisons and introspection. After all it isn't often that conference - an event full of speeches setting out the aspirations of a newly elected government, and policy initiatives designed to promote them - lands at the same time two sets of data setting out just how challenging meeting those aspirations is likely to be.
So let's start with conference…. Now, a confession… I was not there. So all of this reporting is second hand, but from what I understand, planning was very high on the agenda… and that agenda was tinged with a very healthy sense of realism.
According to some confidential sources, a variety of LinkedIn posts, and some less-confidential reporting from Planning Magazine, key conference takeaways included:
- A firm commitment to bringing back strategic planning, as a way of making the plan-led system work more effectively - but also an acknowledgment that getting to 100% local and strategic plan coverage won't be easy.
- Determined speeches from both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor addressing both the need to get britain building again, and the fact that this will involve some communities having to accept development that they may not necessarily be too keen on.
- A further indication from Matthew Pennycook that the Labour administration is willing to take amuch more interventionist approach, should local plans not come forward or meet their housing need.
That sense of realism is to be welcomed*. As getting to 1.5 millions homes by the end of the parliament will not be an easy feat. Last week also saw the release of two important sets of statistics, which demonstrate just how much of a mountain we have to climb.
First, we had the latest planning application statistics from MHCLG, which track the number of planning applications received and decided between April and June 2024.
This release shows a continuing downward trend in the numbers of planning applications submitted to, and granted by local planning authorities.
To quote from the release:
"Between April to June 2024, district level planning authorities in England:
- received 84,400 applications for planning permission, down 9% from the same quarter a year earlier;
- decided 81,800 applications for planning permission, down 6% from the same quarter a year earlier;
- granted 70,200 decisions, down 7% from the same quarter a year earlier"
This is a problem, as it means the pipeline of new permissions currently in the system is falling - just at the time when the government needs a sharp acceleration in housing (and indeed commercial and infrastructure) delivery.
The housing supply statistics were released a few days later. These painted a slightly more nuanced picture, with very volatile changes in housing starts but completions proving somewhat steadier.
That said, however, the overall trends shown in the data are stark.
To quote from the release again:
“As can be seen from Figure 1 below, trends in starts and completions were similar up to 2008. During the economic downturn of 2008, both starts and completions fell. From 2009, starts began to recover and during the next three years both series converged and levelled out. From 2013 to 2018, both starts and completions gradually grew again. Starts and completions both reached their lowest level in the June quarter 2020 reflecting the restrictions introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Following a sharp uptick in the September quarter 2020, starts have been more volatile, peaking in the June quarter 2023 and then falling sharply in the second half of 2023 (partly due to changes in building regulations, see note at the beginning of this release). Completions were broadly stable between the September quarter 2020 and the December quarter 2022, and have decreased since.”
Again, the steep fall in starts on site is not good news for the government's 1.5 million homes target, as it indicates that the supply of new build homes is likely to contract further before it begins to increase.
In terms of the interventions planned to turn this around.
- The NPPF consultation closed last tuesday (24 September). Whilst the proposed revisions could start to make a real difference - particularly if the changes to the standard method are retained - we are going to have to wait for them. Latest indications are that the response is likely to be published either very late this year, or early next**.
- The Planning & Infrastructure Bill and the English Devolution Bill are not expected to be published before the new year; and
- “Brownfield Passports” are clearly at a very early stage of development.
That leaves the upcoming Budget as the last real hope for any more immediate changes. Early indications are that the Budget may contain help for housing associations and local planning authorities… and possibly an investment zone or two…. but there unlikely to be many development related rabbits emerging from the Chancellor's hat.
In short, delivering on the government's ambitions for planning and development is unlikely to be quick or easy. There is a lot of work to do and a five year parliamentary term can disappear remarkably quickly*!…. Now that conference is over…. it really is time for the rubber to meet the road.
*I understand from people who are on the conference circuit, that it isn't universal…..
** my money is on 22nd or 23rd December… but that is a real guess.
*! Says the mother of a soon to be six year old….. I have no idea where the last six years have gone!
trends in starts and completions were similar up to 2008. During the economic downturn of 2008, both starts and completions fell. From 2009, starts began to recover and during the next three years both series converged and levelled out. From 2013 to 2018, both starts and completions gradually grew again. Starts and completions both reached their lowest level in the June quarter 2020 reflecting the restrictions introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Following a sharp uptick in the September quarter 2020, starts have been more volatile, peaking in the June quarter 2023 and then falling sharply in the second half of 2023 (partly due to changes in building regulations, see note at the beginning of this release). Completions were broadly stable between the September quarter 2020 and the December quarter 2022, and have decreased since.”
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